The Earth4All Initiative has recently published a report entitled ‘People and Planet, 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries’. In this report, the researchers set aside the population-modelling approaches adopted by the UN and instead modelled birth rates explicitly and causally as a function of GDP per person, which shows a negative correlation between income and fertility rate. The per-capita GDP is a “proxy” for female education and socio-economic mobility, among other factors.
Two Scenarios Created
Based on this modelling, the researchers advanced two scenarios. In the first scenario, called “Too Little, Too Late,” it is predicted that if economic development continues as it has in the last five decades, the world’s population would peak at 8.6 billion in 2050, roughly 25 years from now, and decline to 7 billion by 2100. In the second scenario, called “The Giant Leap,” the researchers concluded that the population will peak at 8.5 billion by 2040 – a decade sooner than 2050 – but then rapidly decline to around 6 billion by 2100.
This will be due to investments in poverty alleviation, gender equity, education and health, ameliorating inequality, and food and energy security.
India Specific Findings
The report presents India with a unique challenge. India would surpass China as the most populous country in 2023. India’s total fertility rate would be 2.1 (lower in urban centres). On the one hand, it will have a very large ‘young population’ (18-35-year-olds) that is also un- or under-employed, and on the other, it is dealing with rapidly declining fertility and a skewed women-to-men demographic ratio.
About Earth4All Initiative
The Earth4All Initiative is an international collaboration that brings together leading researchers and policymakers from the Club of Rome, the Norwegian Business School, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Together, they explore transformational political and economic solutions for the 21st century to catalyze transformation along five pathways: energy, food, inequality, poverty, and population (including health and education).
The initiative builds on the Limits to Growth report commissioned by the Club of Rome and published in 1972. This report warned about the consequences of unrestrained economic and population growth on the environment and human wellbeing. The Earth4All Initiative seeks to continue this important work by providing updated information and proposing solutions that are in line with the planetary boundaries.
Why In News
The Earth4All Initiative has recently released a report which presents predictions about the world’s human population. This report sheds light on sustainable population scenarios and possible living standards within planetary boundaries, with the goal of catalyzing transformation towards a more equitable and sustainable future.
MCQs about Earth4All Initiative
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What is the title of the Earth4All report?
A. People and Planet, 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries
B. The Limits to Growth report
C. The Global Population Outlook
D. The Human Population Forecast
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What is the per-capita GDP used for in the Earth4All report?
A. To model birth rates
B. To model mortality rates
C. To model migration rates
D. To model economic growth
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What is the second scenario presented in the Earth4All report?
A. “Too Little, Too Late”
B. “The Giant Leap”
C. “Population Explosion”
D. “Sustainable Growth”
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What is the Earth4All Initiative focused on?
A. Energy, food, inequality, poverty, and population
B. Technology and innovation
C. Climate change only
D. Health and education
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