Hindu Editorial Analysis : 11-July-2024

As we observe World Population Day on July 11, it’s essential to reflect on India’s demographic journey. Over the decades, this journey has been filled with both successes and challenges that have shaped the country’s population dynamics.

A Brief History of World Population Day

World Population Day was established by the United Nations in 1989, following a proposal by Dr. K.C. Zachariah, a notable demographer. At that time, the global population had surpassed five billion. Countries, especially developing ones, faced significant issues such as:

  • Poverty
  • Health disparities
  • Gender inequality

These issues highlighted the need for awareness and action regarding population growth.

Scary Decades: The 1960s and 1970s

During the 1960s and 1970s, the global population grew at a frightening rate of 2% per year. India was predicted to face severe consequences, including:

  • Widespread poverty
  • Increased hunger
  • High mortality rates

However, the reality turned out to be different.

Unexpected Progress in India

Decline in Fertility Rates

Since the 1970s, India has seen a significant decline in fertility rates. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), India’s total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021. This decline is now below the replacement level of 2.1.

Improved Life Expectancy

Life expectancy in India has risen due to better healthcare and living conditions. For instance, individuals aged 60 and above made up 8.6% of the population in 2011, and this is projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050.

Demographic Shifts and Development

India’s population changes are closely linked to its development:

  • Smaller Family Norms: The decline in fertility indicates a shift towards smaller families.
  • Demographic Dividend: This transition can lead to a demographic dividend, where the working-age population exceeds dependents.
  • Eradication of Poverty: The percentage of the population living below the poverty line decreased from 48% in 1990 to 10% in 2019.

Challenges and Associated Risks

Despite these advancements, India faces several challenges:

  • Low Human Capital: Many graduates lack employability, with only 20-30% of engineers finding suitable jobs.
  • Economic Transition: As India moves from an agrarian to a non-agrarian economy, two main challenges arise:
    • Reskilling workers for new industries
    • Geographic shifts, as job opportunities often lie in urban areas.
Health and Economic Concerns

India also grapples with:

  • Health crises
  • Job creation needs
  • Macroeconomic shocks
  • Climate change impacts
Gender Disparity

While gender inequality is still a concern, recent years have shown improvements, such as:

  • Higher education levels for women
  • Increased workforce participation

These changes could enhance workforce productivity.

The Need for Investment in Education and Health

To fully benefit from its demographic dividend, India must invest significantly in education and healthcare. This investment is vital to prepare the workforce with the necessary skills to thrive in a modern economy.

Why In News

As we observe World Population Day on July 11, there is much to reflect upon in India’s demographic journey over the decades, highlighting the significant transformations that have occurred and the pressing challenges that remain; we need to delve into the hits and misses that have shaped India’s population dynamics and consider how these lessons can inform future policies.

MCQs about Reflecting on India’s Demographic Journey: World Population Day

  1. What year was World Population Day established?
    A. 1985
    B. 1989
    C. 1992
    D. 1995
    Correct Answer: B. 1989
    Explanation: World Population Day was established by the United Nations in 1989 following a proposal by Dr. K.C. Zachariah.
  2. What was India’s total fertility rate (TFR) between 1992 and 2021, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5)?
    A. 3.4 to 2.5
    B. 3.4 to 2
    C. 3.0 to 2.1
    D. 3.0 to 2.5
    Correct Answer: B. 3.4 to 2
    Explanation: The NFHS-5 reported that India’s TFR decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.
  3. What percentage of India’s population lived below the poverty line in 2019?
    A. 48%
    B. 30%
    C. 10%
    D. 20%
    Correct Answer: C. 10%
    Explanation: The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% in 1990 to 10% in 2019, indicating significant progress in poverty eradication.
  4. Which of the following is a challenge that India faces as it transitions to a non-agrarian economy?
    A. Increased agricultural output
    B. Low birth rates
    C. Need for reskilling workers
    D. Higher dependency ratio
    Correct Answer: C. Need for reskilling workers
    Explanation: As India’s economy shifts from agrarian to non-agrarian sectors, a major challenge is reskilling workers to transition into manufacturing or services, as well as addressing the geographic shift in job opportunities.

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