Hindu Editorial Analysis : 10-April-2024
Recent studies, particularly one by The Lancet, have highlighted a significant change in fertility rates in India. Over the last century, the total fertility rate (TFR) in India has been steadily decreasing. This essay explores the findings, causes, and impacts of this decline.
Key Findings
The TFR in India is projected to drop from 6.18 children per woman in 1950 to 1.29 by 2051. This forecast comes from a comprehensive demographic study covering 204 countries as part of the global burden of disease research. However, the decline is not uniform across the country.
- States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand may take longer to reach the replacement level of fertility, which is essential for population stabilization.
- The United Nations predicts that India’s population will peak at around 1.7 billion by 2065 before starting to decline.
Causes of Decline
Several factors have contributed to this demographic transition:
- Economic Development: Rapid economic growth has changed family dynamics.
- Lower Mortality Rates: Improved infant and child survival rates lessen the need for larger families.
- Women’s Education: Increased educational opportunities for women lead to better family planning.
- Modern Contraception: Greater access to contraception allows families to control their number of children.
- Improved Housing and Security: Better living conditions and social safety nets reduce the reliance on children for old-age support.
- Health Issues: Factors like obesity, stress, smoking, and environmental pollution also play a role.
Positive Impacts
The decline in TFR has several positive outcomes:
- Economic Growth: A lower dependency ratio means more working adults, potentially increasing national income.
- Increased Productivity: States may experience higher labor productivity.
- Resource Allocation: Fewer children allow for more investment in education and skill development.
Negative Impacts
Despite the positives, there are concerns:
- Aging Population: A declining fertility rate may lead to a larger elderly population, similar to trends seen in China and Japan.
- Dependency Ratio Increase: The dependency ratio is expected to rise from 13.8 in 2011 to 23 by 2036, meaning more elderly depend on fewer working-age individuals.
- Social Imbalances: Gender preferences can lead to imbalances that may cause social issues.
- Policy Challenges: The shifting demographics pose challenges for policies focused on skill development, especially for women and underprivileged groups.
Why In News
A recent study by The Lancet on global fertility rates suggests that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been experiencing a significant decline over the last century, reflecting broader global demographic trends and changing societal norms.
MCQs about The Decline of Fertility Rates in India
- What is the projected total fertility rate (TFR) for India by the year 2051?
A. 2.5
B. 3.5
C. 1.29
D. 6.18
- Which of the following factors is NOT mentioned as a cause of the decline in fertility rates in India?
A. Improved housing conditions
B. Increased infant mortality rates
C. Higher women’s education levels
D. Modern contraception use
- What positive impact does the decline in TFR have on India’s economy?
A. Increased unemployment
B. Higher dependency ratio
C. Increased labor productivity
D. More large families
- What is one potential negative impact of the declining fertility rates in India?
A. Younger population
B. Greater gender equality
C. Larger elderly dependent population
D. Decrease in education spending
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