India is currently experiencing a colder winter than normal, with the La Niña phenomenon happening for a record-breaking third consecutive year, also known as the “Triple dip” La Niña. However, forecasts for the 2023 fall and winter are predicting that El Niño will occur with more than a 50% probability. This essay will discuss the significance of this potential El Niño on India’s weather and the world, as well as more information about El Niño, La Niña, and the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cycle.

Increase in the Planet’s Average Surface Temperature

El Niño is known to create a global-warming crisis in miniature, as the warm water spreading across the tropical Pacific releases a large amount of heat into the atmosphere. If El Niño does occur in 2023, it could increase the planet’s average surface temperature by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels. This can have drastic effects on weather patterns worldwide and economies that depend on rainfall.

Transition of La Niña to El Niño

A transition from a La Niña winter, which is what India is currently experiencing, to an El Niño summer has historically tended to produce the largest deficit in the monsoon. This means that pre-monsoon and monsoon circulations tend to be weaker in an El Niño year, and weaker vertical shear, which is the change in intensity of winds from the surface to the upper atmosphere, also tends to be weaker.

This can favor enhanced cyclogenesis or cyclone formation. If El Niño does occur, India is likely to experience a deficit monsoon in 2023, accompanied by extreme wet and dry events. While the overall seasonal total could be deficient, there are likely to be isolated pockets of heavy or very heavy rainfall.

More About El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO

El Niño occurs every few years, where the warming of seawater in the central-east Equatorial Pacific causes surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to rise, and trade winds weaken. Disruptions in the food chain and ecosystem, as well as alterations in wind and weather patterns, are the outcomes of El Niño.

In contrast, La Niña sees cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific region, with stronger than usual trade winds pushing warmer water towards Asia. Upwelling increases on the American west coast, bringing nutrient-rich water to the surface, and the Pacific cold waters close to the Americas push jet streams northwards, leading to drier conditions in Southern U.S. and heavy rainfall in Canada. La Niña has also been associated with heavy floods in Australia.

MCQs on Transition from La Niña to El Niño

  1. What is the potential impact of El Niño on the planet’s surface temperature?
    A. It could increase by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels
    B. It could decrease by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels
    C. It could remain unchanged from pre-industrial levels
    D. None of the above
    Correct Answer: A. It could increase by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels
    Explanation: If El Niño occurs in 2023, it could increase the planet’s average surface temperature by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels. This can have significant effects on weather patterns worldwide and economies that depend on rainfall.
  2. How does El Niño affect the monsoon season in India?
    A. It tends to produce the largest deficit in the monsoon.
    B. It tends to increase rainfall during the monsoon season.
    C. It has no significant impact on the monsoon season in India.
    D. None of the above.
    Correct Answer: A. It tends to produce the largest deficit in the monsoon.
    Explanation: A transition from a La Niña winter, which is what India is currently experiencing, to an El Niño summer has historically tended to produce the largest deficit in the monsoon. This means that pre-monsoon and monsoon circulations tend to be weaker in an El Niño year, and weaker vertical shear also tends to be weaker. This can favor enhanced cyclogenesis or cyclone formation. If El Niño does occur, India is likely to experience a deficit monsoon in 2023, accompanied by extreme wet and dry events. While the overall seasonal total could be deficient, there are likely to be isolated pockets of heavy or very heavy rainfall.
  3. What are the outcomes of El Niño and La Niña?
    A. El Niño disrupts the food chain and ecosystem, and alters wind and weather patterns.
    B. La Niña results in cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific region and stronger than usual trade winds pushing warmer water towards Asia.
    C. Both A and B.
    D. None of the above.
    Correct Answer: C. Both A and B.
    Explanation: El Niño occurs every few years, where the warming of seawater in the central-east Equatorial Pacific causes surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to rise, and trade winds weaken. Disruptions in the food chain and ecosystem, as well as alterations in wind and weather patterns, are the outcomes of El Niño. In contrast, La Niña sees cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific region, with stronger than usual trade winds pushing warmer water towards Asia. Upwelling increases on the American west coast, bringing nutrient-rich water to the surface, and the Pacific cold waters close to the Americas push jet streams northwards, leading to drier conditions in Southern U.S. and heavy rainfall in Canada. La Niña has also been associated with heavy floods in Australia.

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